Monday, July 7, 2014

Pre-Semis Talking Points


Favorites are 12-0 so far in the knockout stages winning in pretty much any different way imaginable. 12 and 0. WOW.
The 3 pre-tourney favorites are all in the Semis showing why the bookmakers were correct in giving them shorter odds then the best national team of all time.
Costa Rica, who had the 2nd largest odds to win it all after Honduras, just left the tourney undefeated and would possibly be in the semis if a Newcastle player didn't get subbed on. 
Holland's two backup keepers have a 10% success rate against PKs and a 27% success rate. Guess which one came on as a sub.

Brasil is an underdog in a game in Brasil. Re-read that sentence again bc this will be probably the one and only time this ever happens. 
The dumbest rule in all of sports is causing the best defender in the world to miss the semis.
Neymar was almost paralyzed off of a not hard foul after being chopped to shreds all tourney.
Lahm dropping back to RB w/ Boateng at CB and Mertesacker out makes the Germans a lot quicker and better structured. Everyone knows this. But does Lowe? I think yes but Khedira/Schweiny will need to step up at some point.
Will Scolari finally drop Fred and who plays in place of Neymar? I am a big believer in that it's better to play good players out of position then play average players in their correct position so I would go w/ Willian and Bernard w/ Oscar or Hulk playin false 9 but Scolari always plays w/ one good hold up center striker. Germany is extremely susceptible to the breakaway but win everything in the air so this is Scolari's time to potentially do that. 

Di-maria is out but the good news is Aguero is back. But is that really good news? An out of form, not in shape Aguero w/ no Di maria puts even more burden on Messi and may not be the best move for Higuian. Where the fuck is Tevez when you need him?
Dirk Kuyt at wing back has played a vital role in this WC. Who would have thought that 4 years ago? Ya no one.
Argentina is the favorite yet have the inferior coach, have played worse, and are dealing w/ more injuries. Netherlands at +210 or more is a great bet but since I'm rooting for Messi I'm going to stay away.

Friday, June 27, 2014

WC Group Stages Team of Tourney




Unpredictable. Controversial. High-scoring. Chaotic. Beautiful. The World Cup has been all that and more. Undeniably, so far, this has been the best World Cup ever. From Messi’s left footed curlers to Ronaldo’s whining to Jermaine Jones’ wonder-strike to Spain’s implosion to Robben’s runs to Suarez’s bite to Costa Rica’s emergence, this World Cup already has a boatload of memorable moments. We can just hope as fans that the knockout stages get even better.

Team of the Tourney (2nd string)

Because there has been no defense so far, and there has been a strong showing of the 3 man backline (thank you Chile and the Netherlands), I have decided to go with a very attacking 3-2-3-1 formation.

GK- Ochoa (Navas) – Ochoa barely edges out Keylor Navas because of his game of a lifetime performance against the WC favorites. While most of his stellar saves had more to do with luck and being well positioned, the save on Neymar’s header was the save of the tourney so far. Simply world class and makes fans like me confused on why he can’t show these skills for an elite club team. Navas, on the other hand, was stellar for Levante all season (rated #2 keeper in Spanish league this season behind Courtouis) and has remained stellar for Costa Rica’s shock run.

LCB- T. Silva (Blind) – Cheating a little bit here putting Blind slightly out of position but he was absolutely superb against Spain and was solid against Chile and Australia as well. He was one of the young studs to watch for this tourney and has proven why so many top teams are after him. Silva is simply the best defender in the world and will need to play like that in order for Brasil to win it all.

CB- Godin (Hummels) – Yes Godin should have gotten a second yellow for his off the ball bump against England. Yes Uruguay probably would have lost and he wouldn’t have sniffed the team of the tourney (and would have been in my top disappointments list below). But I am not a ref and since that non-call, he has arguably been the most important player so far. He absolutely destroyed England’s front line and made Balotelli look like a middle schooler. Add in his ability to score extremely important game winning goals for club and country and you got a top class defender. Hummels deserves mention as he has fully recovered from his ligament tear and is back to the fantastic form he showed a year ago for Dortmund.

RCB- Marquez (Costa Rica’s entire backline) – Marquez has made history by becoming the first player to captain his nation in four WC tourneys. From what he has looked like in the last couple years, I, like many, thought he had nothing left in the tank. Oh how he has proved me wrong. His marshalling of Mexico’s backline and presence in the air has been top notch and at his prime age of 35, that is no easy feat. Costa Rica’s entire defense gets credit here as they have played brilliantly together and thoroughly deserve to be in the knockout stages. Special credit to Giancarlo Gonzalez as he’s been the best of the bunch.

CDM- De Jong (Lahm) – De Jong looks like the De Jong from the last WC. Everyone remembers his flying kick against Alonso’s chest in the final but what people don’t remember was that he, at that time, was regarded by many as the best defensive midfielder in the game. While he isn’t close to the best in the world anymore, he has been in this tourney. Relentless, uncompromising, clever, and fierce- all traits you want from that position. Lahm, who is the best CDM in the world, as this is now his main position, just keeps clocking away. Keeping possession intelligently and winning the ball back repeatable- there is no one better.

CDM- Egidio Rios (Matuidi) – Rios is the destructive bull force that Uruguay has needed in their overall underperforming play. He does all the little things that go unnoticed throughout the game and primarily made my squad due to superb performance against Italy where Italy’s top class midfield couldn’t get a sniff of the match. Matuidi has been doing what he’s done all season for PSG as his all-around play and non-stop motor make him one of the most underrated players in the world. With Pogba and Cabaye not hitting the form they are capable yet, he has kept France on the front foot.

LW- James Rodriquez (Benzema)- James has been the star of the tourney and is showing why Monaco splashed out so much cash for him last year. While different players, he reminds me of A. Sanchez from last WC in that after watching him for 5 mins all I thought about is “who the fuck is that guy”. He has the endurance of a Vidal, the passing of a Pirlo, the dribbling of a Neymar, and the finishing of a Messi. Add in some fine tackling from an attacking player and a header goal to boot, and he is truly a world class player in the making. Oh ya and he’s only 22. Benzema has played up top and on the left when Giroud is in and really should have won the Golden Boot by now.  

CAM- Neymar (Mueller)- And I thought the pressure would get to Neymar. He truly is never frazzled and has shown the world his best in the world dribbling skills (sorry Ronaldo) and intelligent finishing. With Scolari letting him and Oscar change positions all over the pitch, he has been given the freedom to do what he does best- put pressure on the defense. If he keeps up his stellar play, and Brasil gets a favorable call (or two), they should win it all. However, being put in the knockout corner with three other South American teams makes his path a lot harder than the little genius below. Mueller has started up top but looks far more dangerous in support of Klose. He took his goal brilliantly against the USA and will need to keep scoring for Germany to take home the trophy.

RW- Messi (A. Sanchez)- In the first 60 mins against Bosnia, Messi was the worst I have ever seen him. He kept giving the ball away, was unconfident, didn’t have his usual quickness and sharpness, and looked like his nerves were getting to him. People won’t remember those 60 mins but I will. Since then, however, he has shown why many regard him as the best of all time. The drastic difference a brilliant goal makes to a player is shown throughout the history of soccer, but never at this magnitude. Too bad his teammates haven’t shown up yet and Argentina lacks any resemblance of defensive structure for them to win it all. He can’t do it on his own. Sanchez hasn’t hit the heights of last WC where he made his name known but he has still been superb throughout. His stamina, like many of his country mates, is top notch and like Neymar, he just goes to another level when he puts on his nation’s shirt.

CF- Robben (Van Persie)- Someone still needs to come up with a name for these virtuosos- The Dutch Duo, The Flying Dutchman, The Roasting Robbens,…. Anyways, Robben gets the nod over Van Persie due to Van Persie’s suspension in the final group game (FIFA needs to change this rule already). Both have been absolutely brilliant for the Dutch, scoring some phenomenal goals and allowing Van Gal to play the perfect defensive counter attacking tactic that suits them best. As Robben’s gotten older, he has somehow transformed himself into Usain Bolt and has gone on the best solo runs of the tourney. His ability to run at full speed with the ball and still have precision/power with his left foot makes him impossible to defend and is only surpassed by Messi. Somehow, at the age of 30, when speed dribblers are almost always at their decline, he is playing the best football of his career and has been a complete joy to watch.  

Biggest Disappointments- ESPN’s analysis crew, Africa, Fabio Capello (really couldn’t get out of that shitty group), Palacios’s tackling, Song, Balotelli (great against England then horrible in last 2 games), ESPN again, having to listen to Alexi Lalas, Messi’s teammates and coach’s lack of defensive shape, Croatia and Bosnia (and kind of England) getting screwed by refs, Ronaldo (a happy disappointment for us USA fans), the abrupt end of Spain’s Reign, ESPN one more time for hiring guys who can’t speak English.

My take on Suarez ban- FIFA should not have banned him from any club level games. There are definite legality issues here that will only cause more controversy. I would have banned him for 1 year of International play and that is it. 1/1 odds he gets sold to Madrid or Barcelona which will only make the situation even more complicated.

Special last shout out to CONCACAF for the absolutely superb out of nowhere performance so far. Unlike Nigeria, the USA, Mexico, and Costa Rica not only all deserve to be in the knockout stages, but have progressed in 3 of the top 4 groups in the tourney. This is truly a special achievement.

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

The World Cup of Holy SHIT Everyone’s Injured

Now that we are two days away, and all of the top teams have one of their attacking superstars injured or hurt except for Brasil, it seems that everyone and their mother is predicting Brasil to win it all. Honestly, I don’t blame them but I have never been one to go with the favorite. The pressure, combined with Scolari’s stubbornness to play the guys he favors (Oscar/Hulk over Willian, Paulinho/Gustavo over Ramires/ Fernandinho), and Julio Cesar in goal, is enough evidence for me to go with someone else.

Predictions (in order from first to last)

A-     Brasil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon
B-      Spain, Chile, Netherlands, Australia
C-      Colombia, Ivory Coast, Japan, Greece
D-     England, Italy, Uruguay, Costa Rica
E-      Switzerland, France, Ecuador, Honduras
F-      Argentina, Nigeria, Bosnia, Iran
G-     Germany, USA, Ghana, Portugal
H-     Russia, Belgium, South Korea, Algeria

Yes I was completely biased in my predictions of USA and England advancing as Portugal and Uruguay are better teams respectively, but I’m rooting for them and there’s always a couple crazy upsets so fuck it.

Best Bets- Brasil ties Croatia +430, Ghana ties USA +220, Italy ties England +210, Portugal ties Germany +250, Iran ties Nigeria at +240, Italy wins it all at 25-1, Golden Boot to Higuain at 20-1, Muller at 25-1, Jackson Martinez at 80-1, Eduardo Vargas at 150-1

As seen above, I love the first game ties as most teams play more cautious and there are a boatload of 0-0 and 1-1 draws. I am not sure why Higuain is getting so little love for the golden boot as Messi will be threading balls to him all day, Argentina should romp their group, and Aguero isn’t fully fit. If Chile were not in one of the scary 3 (Group B, D, and G) Vargas at 150-1, and Chile at 40-1, would easily be my favorite bets. Vargas at those odds is still great.

Final Four
Belgium over Brasil 1-1 win in PKs
Argentina over Spain 2-0

Final
Argentina over Belgium 2-1