Tuesday, June 10, 2014

The World Cup of Holy SHIT Everyone’s Injured

Now that we are two days away, and all of the top teams have one of their attacking superstars injured or hurt except for Brasil, it seems that everyone and their mother is predicting Brasil to win it all. Honestly, I don’t blame them but I have never been one to go with the favorite. The pressure, combined with Scolari’s stubbornness to play the guys he favors (Oscar/Hulk over Willian, Paulinho/Gustavo over Ramires/ Fernandinho), and Julio Cesar in goal, is enough evidence for me to go with someone else.

Predictions (in order from first to last)

A-     Brasil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon
B-      Spain, Chile, Netherlands, Australia
C-      Colombia, Ivory Coast, Japan, Greece
D-     England, Italy, Uruguay, Costa Rica
E-      Switzerland, France, Ecuador, Honduras
F-      Argentina, Nigeria, Bosnia, Iran
G-     Germany, USA, Ghana, Portugal
H-     Russia, Belgium, South Korea, Algeria

Yes I was completely biased in my predictions of USA and England advancing as Portugal and Uruguay are better teams respectively, but I’m rooting for them and there’s always a couple crazy upsets so fuck it.

Best Bets- Brasil ties Croatia +430, Ghana ties USA +220, Italy ties England +210, Portugal ties Germany +250, Iran ties Nigeria at +240, Italy wins it all at 25-1, Golden Boot to Higuain at 20-1, Muller at 25-1, Jackson Martinez at 80-1, Eduardo Vargas at 150-1

As seen above, I love the first game ties as most teams play more cautious and there are a boatload of 0-0 and 1-1 draws. I am not sure why Higuain is getting so little love for the golden boot as Messi will be threading balls to him all day, Argentina should romp their group, and Aguero isn’t fully fit. If Chile were not in one of the scary 3 (Group B, D, and G) Vargas at 150-1, and Chile at 40-1, would easily be my favorite bets. Vargas at those odds is still great.

Final Four
Belgium over Brasil 1-1 win in PKs
Argentina over Spain 2-0

Argentina over Belgium 2-1


Sam said...

Deyan you are off your rocker with some of those predictions. You are right about teams coming out conservative though, I like all of those games you mentioned to draw. Not sure if you can find odds on either of these but I'd bet on no African teams to advance, and I could see Uruguay and Italy knowing that they'll both advance with a draw in their last group game and England go home without losing a game.

I'm also predicting that the state of the fields will be a major storyline, the sandboxes can only help the CONCACAF/CONEMBOL teams


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