Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Group Stage Grades



what do you mean you don't have tzatziki



Group A 



Czech Republic - B+ - Saying that they've overachieved is obviously an understatement.  To beat the Poles on their own soil without their only real star (Rosicky) is an achievement enough in itself.  Pilar the left winger and Selassie the right back have had a couple of decent games, and the introduction of Hubshcman forged their identity.  But Milan Baros by himself isn't going to scare the Portuguese and it's difficult to see them getting a goal much less progressing.

Greece - C+ - Yes they were unlucky against Poland and might have won. And they have gotten better as the tournament has worn on.  (players like Samaras come to mind).  But it's more than fair to say that their luck has evened out.  They really didn't play the football to earn their way to the knockout round, and were it not for a catastrophic error by a Russian center back they would be back home dusting off their drachmas and standing in the unemployment line.  Will be interesting to see how they react after Germany score...

Russia - C - Put the ball in the box! Every Russian must have been pulling their hair out watching that agonizing last 20 minutes against Greece.  As great as they looked against the Czech Republic, it worked against them in hindsight as they must have thought that they'd waltz through the group. I thought their holding midfielder, Denisov was excellent, and Zhirkov was a bit unlucky that his good work didn't lead to more.  I couldn't help but feel a little bit of schadenfreude too when Arshavin's lackadaisical tendencies that mutinied the arsenal on several occasions this year started to creep into his team, especially against Greece.  With everything to play for, Russia looked like a team who had accepted their fate. 

Poland - C- -  The Poles too must have thought that they'd waltz right through the group after their first 20 minutes of the tournament which they came out all guns blazing.  But how fast did that peter out?  The Dortmund stars were all impressive.  But to lose at home to a rather toothless Czech side speaks to the lack of a backup plan that most of the nations failed to incorporate. 


Group B
 
Germany - A - You don't really get the feeling that we've seen the best of Germany.  What we have seen is a cool and composed Mario Gomez who is choosing a decent time not to poop his pants on the big stage as he has in the past.  They are definitely vulnerable, but a wise man wouldn't bet against them.  They are confident too, and have a great team collected that is epitomized by Ozil, the most selfless play I can remember.  They'd have to be the favorites to lift the trophy as unconvincing as Spain have looked. 

Portugal- A- -  They must have been licking their chops when Denmark beat the Dutch in the opening game which blew the group wide open.  And despite the fact that they had the advantage against Holland in that they didn't necessarily need the 3 points, you have to give them credit for taking what the group has given them.  It's painfully obvious that they are at their best on the break with two of the world's best players with the ball at their feet, Nani and Ronaldo.  But I just wonder whether there is enough of a passer in Meireles, Mountinho, and Veloso to overcome the kind of challenge that the Czechs will give them. 

Denmark - B - They will be kicking themselves for allowing that late winner against Portugal because that was the goal that effectively ended any real hope they had.  But it was a decent showing from the Danes although we were left wanting more from the supposed Ajax starlet Eriksen who hardly seemed to see much of the ball.  I guess the word got out about him.  Their left back, Poulsen was impressive.

Holland - F - And they earned their F.  Bert Van Winkle or whatever their coach's name is clearly no Phil Jackson.  And I can't remember seeing a team that clearly did not have any sort of collective spirit and high of a profile as this Dutch team.  Sure we wouldn't be talking about this if they had progressed. Because this is essentially the same team that made the world cup final and played some incredible football two years ago. But what a failure. The tactics, the selection, everything they touched turned to shite.  Sneijder was their best player, but what is it worth to be the best player in a failing system?  Ask Felix Hernandez.

1 vs. 11
Group C

Spain - C - Does Del Bosque know something we don't? He must, because no one else can figure out why he persists with this incredibly frustrating formation.  Spain will continue to pass the air out of the ball, and the air out of the stadium, but you get the feeling that this won't win them the tournament.  Surely Del Bosque knows this and will shake it up? Por supuesto que si.  Meanwhile, Andres Iniesta, is just fine playing tiki-taka, thank you very much.  Is there a player that could be more ideal for the type of Barca-induced style of football that Spain have made their trademark?

Italy - A - You can take the Italians out of Italy...but you'll still get a vintage Italian team with a modern edge that look very dangerous.  It's gratifying to see Andrea Pirlo, a longtime personal favorite of mine, having such a tournament in the twilight of his career.  As ever with any Italian team, the key for them is to score first. They aren't built to come from behind, and they haven't had to do it at this tournament yet.

Croatia - B+ - Croatia are surely the best team that will not be playing in the knockout round. And were a bit unlucky in the way the fixtures lined up for them, having to play Spain last.  Luka Modric is just incredible, you can't say enough about his touches, passing, movements, just outstanding.  Bilic had to roll the dice and go for it in the second half against Spain, an unenviable task. You just felt that they missed the energy of Olic who might have given the dog-tired Mandzukic a much needed lift.

Ireland - D - They were out of their depth and they knew it. They didn't do themselves any favors conceding in the first five minutes, but at the end of the day Trapatoni just didn't have the players at his disposal to hang with three of the world's elite.  St. Ledger was especially outclassed throughout (sorry buddy if you're reading this, but you were, it's not your fault you're just not that fast).

Group D

England - B+ - Job done.  I'm not entirely sold that they players have completely bought into Hodgson's style of play.  It's one thing to defend, but surely England shouldn't be sitting back against the Ukraine as they were?  Or maybe they should.  I really am puzzled by England because it's so difficult to look at them objectively whilst we are so used to the players being stars for their club team while England are really just a bunch of mugs having a scruff. Gerrard has unsurprisingly flourished without having to worry about Lampard playing next to him.  They still strike me as too mistake prone to lift a trophy or get by a team as solid as Italy.

France - B - A bit of a mixed bag. They showed what they are capable of in spurts. But god knows it's gonna take more than that to repeat their epic 2006 world cup defeat of Spain. And it will have to come from the same man who scored in that game, Ribery, who all of France must be wondering if he's going to have his breakout game.  Also, Phillipe "the hamburgler" Mexes begs the question to whether he'll be able to keep up with the Spanish maestros.

Ukraine - B - That first game was a bit of an aberration, but they put themselves in great shape to qualify and let themselves down in the end.  I thought they could have gotten something out of that France game if they had played with that same recklessness as they did against Sweden, but it wasn't to be for the host countries this tournament.  Yarmalenko certainly turned some heads, and someone will snatch him up from Dynamo Kyiv no doubt.

Sweden - B- - Why beat around it, this team is a one man show. And what a show it is.  But just as with Ronaldo and Portugal, teams that rely too much on one player are ultimately doomed.  Sweden gave us some great moments though. Like Zlatan getting in Joe Hart's face after they took the lead. Joey had the last laugh though.  Could have used an Henrik Larson as Elmander didn't offer much, it was unclear whether he was even fit.

Euro Best 11 Group Stages

I’m going w/ a 4-2-3-1 formation because that’s the most popular formation in the world right now.




GK- Stephan Anderson (Denmark) Faced a Euro record 32 shots against Holland in the opening match without letting in a goal and commanded crosses into his box better than any other goalie so far in this tourney.

RB- Theodor Selassie (Czech) Strong in defense, potent in attack with a nice cross to boot, Selassie has been a revelation and will need to be even better when he goes up against Ronaldo tomorrow.

CB- Pepe (Portugal) As much as I love to hate him, there is no denying his talent and passion for the game. Both in defence and in attack, he has been completely dominant in the air and unlike his defensive partner, Bruno Alves, his long range passing to his superstar wingers has been brilliant as well.

CB- De Rossi (Italy) Play him out of his position and it don’t matter. His excellent performance against Spain deserves special mention as he looked a Euro 2004 Nesta, Maldini, and Cannavaro combo all rolled into one.

LB- Chiellini (Italy) He has carried his brilliant club form to the national team and has been a rock with De Rossi in the back in their ever changing 3 back formation. Like De Rossi, he will be a HUGE miss in their epic quarterfinal encounter w/ England.

CDM- Modric (Croatia) For all the talk of nibbling pains and exhaustion leading up to Euro, Modric regained his form of last year as one of the best midfielders in the world. He was the best player on the pitch against Ireland, the 2nd best (to the man coming next) against Italy, and easily the best against the World/Euro Defending Champs. How he was able to “outSpain” Spain so effortlessly will only lead to more rumors about which of the top teams will swoop him up this summer and for how much.

CDM- Pirlo (Italy) The best player of the group stages, Pirlo is like a bottle of fine wine- as he gets older, he only seems to get better. The way he dictates a match seemingly in super slow motion is a beauty to see and, combined with his picture perfect set pieces, incredibly difficult to defend against.

CAM- Ozil (Germany) The best player on the best team and that is pretty much all that needs to be said. His movement is second to none and his intelligence on/off the ball makes the game so much easier for his teammates.

RW- Nani (Portugal) Even with his horrible miss against Holland, Nani has been an overall better player than his more famous Portugese winger counterpart. His touch, vision, passing, dribbling, and speed make him extremely dangerous every time the ball comes near him. For having such a disappointing season for United this year, Nani has surprised me in how much better he has looked against extremely tough competition.

LW- Iniesta (Spain) As with England, don’t be fooled by Spain winning their group. For a team filled with such ridiculous talent, Iniesta (and maybe Silva) has been the only one who has showed up. While the rest of the squad seems to play solely horizontally, he has offered the only constant vertical threat and seems able to juke out the entire opposing defense without breaking a sweat.

CF- Gomez (Germany) He has done what a center forward in a one striker formation needs to do- hold the ball up and score goals when presented with the opportunity. With his midfield being so dominant, Gomez hasn’t had to do much, but he has done enough to hold off Klose and remain the focal point of Germany’s vaunted attack. I would be extremely surprised if he does not end the Euros with the golden boot.

Subs
GK- Casillas (Spain)
RB- Boateng  (Germany)
CB- Hummels (Germany)
CB- Lescott (England)
LB- Coentrao (Portugal)
CDM- Schweinsteiger (Germany)
CDM- Karagounis (Greece)
CAM- Gerrard (England)
RW- Alan Dzagoev (Russia)
LW- Ronaldo (Portugal)
CF- Mario Mandzukic (Croatia)

Note- The CDM position has easily been the most superior position so far so even though Schweinsteiger has been the 3rd best player in the entire Euro’s, he couldn’t make it onto the starting 11. Khedira (Germany) is the best player who didn’t make it onto the bench, and I put Gerrard out of position because he deserves to at least be a sub.

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Group A Wrap Up

 Mr. Advocaat's looks like he's just gotten a bit of bad news.

The unlikeliest of scenarios and UEFA's head to head tiebreaker meant that Greece and the Czech Republic's 1-0 wins were enough to shock the footballing world and see Russia and Poland out of Euro 2012.  After Russia's 4-1 dismantling of the Czech Republic and Poland's dominant performance against the Greeks in their respective opening matches, the smart money was on the Warsaw Pact to progress.

But as the old adage goes, it's all about peaking at the right time, and Russia just simply ran out of gas and ideas as their performance got progressively worse as the tournament wore on.  There might be a sentiment of injustice lingering in the Russian camp as they go out on a tie-breaker, but they can't have any complaints. 

Credit has to be given to the Czechs for completely righting the ship after their opening game debacle, but it is difficult to see them (or Greece for that matter) troubling either of the Group B sides.  And what can you say about Greece that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?  Don't let them score because they can park the bus with the best of them.

Monday, June 11, 2012

Day 2 & 3 Recap


 (Portugal were this close to sharing the points)


Denmark blow group B wide open. With Germany, Holland not quite firing on all cylinders the Danes and their free flowing midfield will fancy their chances to progress.  They don't seem keen to park the bus either, so their next two games should yield some goals.

Germany grind out a result. It wasn't pretty, but Germany are in the driving seat for the most coveted spot in the quarterfinal draw as the group B winner.


Group C, the real group of death. Croatia's impressive performance was no doubt in part due to a poor Irish display, but they will be nothing if not confident as they only need a result against either Spain or Italy to progress.

What is Del Bosque doing? Take nothing away from Italy, I thought they were great, but Spain were a far cry from the world champions and tiki-taka giants we've come to know over the past 4 years.  Despite the fact that it was Fabregas and Silva who combined for the goal, it was painfully obvious that there wasn't enough room on the pitch for both of them, and I'd be shocked if he starts the same 11 against Ireland.

Saturday, June 9, 2012

Day 1 Recap


I probably won't write one of these every day. But hey, who cares!

Day one saw everyone's whipping boy of a group, Group A get the Euro 2012 under way with 2 more entertaining encounters than most would have predicted.

Poland and Greece played out to a fitting 1-1 draw in a disjointed game that fizzled after several critical incidents.  This was in truth a very sloppy game, and both of these two will have to raise their games significantly if they are to trouble Russia and their uber-cohesive attacking front 6.  Poland look the more equipped to do so however but they looked awfully impotent after the Socrates got sent off and Samaras was mercifully pushed up top allowing Greece to clog the aortal bleeding down their right flank. Karagounis was also terrible.

I wasn't expecting much from the Czechs, but I have to say that I was shocked at the space they allowed all of Russia's midfielders.  Blame will be thrust upon their defenders, but Plasil or Jiracek, or anyone needs to a least feign an interest in defending or the Czechs will take the party plane home pointless.  I might have gotten a goal if I was allowed that much space in the midfield, just criminal.  Russia might think they'll coast right through this group, (and they probably will) but I think once they run up into a side with a better-drilled midfield, (like they did with the dutch in 08), they'll be in trouble.  None of the four sides defense inspired much confidence tonight.  Greece might have the best backline in this group which is a scary thought.

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Euro 2012 Predictions


As Deyan notes, this tournament is predictable in that it is unpredictable. There will inevitably be a team in the semis that no one expected.

I break the field up into three groups:

Teams that will be happy to get out of their groups (but probably won't): Ireland, Ukraine, Greece, Sweden, Czech Republic, Denmark

Teams that would expect to get out of their groups (but won't expect to lift the trophy): Poland, Russia, Croatia

Teams that feel they have just a good a chance to win as anyone: Portugal, England, France, Italy, Spain, Holland, Germany 

It would be a surprise if the semi finalists don't come from those 7 teams, and from there it's anyone's tournament. (Not much for analysis I know, but that's what makes this the footballing purists favorite).

Below are my predictions of the tables, don't question the point totals, they add up I swear.

Group A
7-Russia
5-Poland
4-Czech Republic
1-Greece

Group B
9-Holland
4-Germany
4-Portugal
0-Denmark

Group C
6-Spain
6-Italy
3-Ireland
3-Croatia

Group D
6-France
5-England
2-Sweden
2-Ukraine

Semis- Holland over Italy, Spain over Germany

Final - Holland over Spain. and Dirk Kuyt/Ruud Van Nistelrooy win the joint golden boot.

I only give the edge to Holland over Germany because I didn't like what I saw from Germany in their friendlies at all.  They might even have a bit of a hangover from the CL final.  Germany are an excellent side, but there's just too much on Ozil's shoulders and although he's the 3rd best player in the world at the moment, I like Hollands balance of creativity and brute force in the midfield and I think they avenge their WC final loss over Spain this time around.

Euro 2012 10 Key Points and Predictions


  1.             Group of Death and the Group of Shit- Group A (Poland, Russia, Czech, and Greece) is the worst group I have ever seen at the Euros and Group B (Germany, Holland, Portugal, Denmark) is arguably the best group anyone has ever seen in any tournament. How the combination of football leaders, ping pong balls, and shitty multiple home countries made this happen is a curiosity to all, but it did happen and we (especially Denmark) have to deal with it.

    2.      3 clear favorites- Spain, Germany, and Holland are easily the 3 best teams in the tourney and every other team is just in their way. Or are they?

    3.      2 big problem positions for the favs- Yes Spain, Germany, and Holland are easily the 3 best teams but for the first time in a while the 3 favs have serious issues each at 2 positions. With Puyol out, Ramos will move into the center of defense leaving the RB position to Arbeloa who doesn’t offer anything in attack. And with Villa injured and Llorente hobbled, an out of form Torres will start up top. For Germany, Lahm looks certain to switch sides and start at LB leaving a hole at RB (where a CB Boateng will prob start) and at CB (Batstuber and Mertesacker are slow and very average). Hummels is class but isn’t even a certainty to start and doesn’t have much international experience. Holland’s big issues all come from the left side where at LW a player who barely played all year, Affellay, looks likely to start and with Pieters injuring his foot, their LB is probably going to be Willems who was uncapped as of a month ago.

    4.      Adoption of the 4-2-3-1 formation- Every coach and their mother seem to have converted to this formation in the past year, especially international teams. It creates a good defensive structure with 2 holding mids protecting the backline but forces teams to play more reactive and to keep certain star strikers on the bench (Huntelaar and Giroud to name a few). What this means for us the fans is cagier, lower scoring games then what we were hoping for.

    5.      Reactive, defensive football at its finest-With Barcelona dominating world football from 2008-2011 with a pass and move, proactive approach, the days of defensive, reactive dominance seemed to fade away into the abyss. But after Chelsea parked the bus and were able to steal the Champions League title this year, many international coaches must have noticed how a fantastic defensive shape may not win you many fans, but it can win you a title. This is exponentially true when you are a much inferior side. Like a….

    6.      Greece 2004 Replay?- With the top teams having huge holes and upset Champs dominating this sports year (the defending champs are the “not one expert predicted them” Mavs, the “came back from a 10.5 game deficit” Cardinals, the “thank god for Romo the choker” Giants, the “finished behind Newcastle in the league” Chelsea, and the soon to be “first 8 seed ever to win” Kings….now take a deep breath and soak that all in) so it seems that it’s in the cards for this Euro Champ to come out of nowhere. But which team will that be? Maybe the octopus knows but I sure as hell don’t.

    7.      Christiano Ronaldo- With Messi watching on the tele and CR9 playing like a man possessed in the last couple years, this tourney is set up for him to show the world what he is capable of. But can this prima donna replicate his club form and carry a very average Portugal side in the Group of Death? I have no idea but damn am I excited to see how this plays out.

    8.      Rising stars making a name for themselves- In every big tourney, a couple young players grow from being a potential star to a legit, world class player (think Muller and Sanchez in last WC). This Euro’s leading contenders are Christian Errickson of Denmark, Mario Gotze of Germany, Oxlade-Chamberlin of England, Kevin Strootman of Holland, and Marvin Martin of France.  Besides Errickson, the rest will most-likely come off the bench but can potentially be the difference from getting knocked out early to winning the whole thing.

    9.      The England mess- What does hiring a new coach right before the tourney, not having your only superstar player for the first 2 games cuz he’s a retard, not being able to bring your 2nd best CB because your best CB said some racist shit to the other one’s brother and banged his former teammates wife, and losing multiple other players to injury get you?  Ding Ding Ding that’s right a first round exit and getting shit on by everyone in your home country. (yes that’s my horrible attempt at doing a reverse jinx cuz as much as I love to hate them, I still root for England in any tournament not involving USA or Iran)

    10.  Hardest Tourney to Predict Ever- With the group of death being so strong, the favorites having issues at certain positions, the usual powerhouses dealing w/ their own internal issues (England, France, Italy), the dangerous dark horses either in the hardest group ever (Denmark) or have hobbling stars (Czech-Rosicky, Russia- Arshavin, Croatia- Modric), and the home countries being so weak, this is the hardest tourney to predict since I have been alive. So on that note on to the predictions….

    Over the last year I have felt that Germany has clearly become the most complete team in the world and after Puyol’s injury, I pegged Germany to win Euro 2012. However, since Germany is now the sexy pick to win it all and this has been the year of the underdog, I have reversed course.

    The team that is shown first is the group winner and upsets are in bold.

    Group A- Poland, Russia
    Group B- Germany, Portugal
    Group C- Spain, Croatia
    Group D- France, Sweden

    Finals- France over Spain 1-0.

    Golden Boot- Benzema