Euro 2012 10 Key Points and Predictions

1.             Group of Death and the Group of Shit- Group A (Poland, Russia, Czech, and Greece) is the worst group I have ever seen at the Euros and Group B (Germany, Holland, Portugal, Denmark) is arguably the best group anyone has ever seen in any tournament. How the combination of football leaders, ping pong balls, and shitty multiple home countries made this happen is a curiosity to all, but it did happen and we (especially Denmark) have to deal with it.
   
   
   2.      3 clear favorites- Spain, Germany, and Holland are easily the 3 best teams in the tourney and every other team is just in their way. Or are they?
   
   
   3.      2 big problem positions for the favs- Yes Spain, Germany, and Holland are easily the 3 best teams but for the first time in a while the 3 favs have serious issues each at 2 positions. With Puyol out, Ramos will move into the center of defense leaving the RB position to Arbeloa who doesn’t offer anything in attack. And with Villa injured and Llorente hobbled, an out of form Torres will start up top. For Germany, Lahm looks certain to switch sides and start at LB leaving a hole at RB (where a CB Boateng will prob start) and at CB (Batstuber and Mertesacker are slow and very average). Hummels is class but isn’t even a certainty to start and doesn’t have much international experience. Holland’s big issues all come from the left side where at LW a player who barely played all year, Affellay, looks likely to start and with Pieters injuring his foot, their LB is probably going to be Willems who was uncapped as of a month ago.
   
   
   4.      Adoption of the 4-2-3-1 formation- Every coach and their mother seem to have converted to this formation in the past year, especially international teams. It creates a good defensive structure with 2 holding mids protecting the backline but forces teams to play more reactive and to keep certain star strikers on the bench (Huntelaar and Giroud to name a few). What this means for us the fans is cagier, lower scoring games then what we were hoping for.
   
   
   5.      Reactive, defensive football at its finest-With Barcelona dominating world football from 2008-2011 with a pass and move, proactive approach, the days of defensive, reactive dominance seemed to fade away into the abyss. But after Chelsea parked the bus and were able to steal the Champions League title this year, many international coaches must have noticed how a fantastic defensive shape may not win you many fans, but it can win you a title. This is exponentially true when you are a much inferior side. Like a….
   
   
   6.      Greece 2004 Replay?- With the top teams having huge holes and upset Champs dominating this sports year (the defending champs are the “not one expert predicted them” Mavs, the “came back from a 10.5 game deficit” Cardinals, the “thank god for Romo the choker” Giants, the “finished behind Newcastle in the league” Chelsea, and the soon to be “first 8 seed ever to win” Kings….now take a deep breath and soak that all in) so it seems that it’s in the cards for this Euro Champ to come out of nowhere. But which team will that be? Maybe the octopus knows but I sure as hell don’t.
   
   
   7.      Christiano Ronaldo- With Messi watching on the tele and CR9 playing like a man possessed in the last couple years, this tourney is set up for him to show the world what he is capable of. But can this prima donna replicate his club form and carry a very average Portugal side in the Group of Death? I have no idea but damn am I excited to see how this plays out.
   
   
   8.      Rising stars making a name for themselves- In every big tourney, a couple young players grow from being a potential star to a legit, world class player (think Muller and Sanchez in last WC). This Euro’s leading contenders are Christian Errickson of Denmark, Mario Gotze of Germany, Oxlade-Chamberlin of England, Kevin Strootman of Holland, and Marvin Martin of France.  Besides Errickson, the rest will most-likely come off the bench but can potentially be the difference from getting knocked out early to winning the whole thing.
   
   
   9.      The England mess- What does hiring a new coach right before the tourney, not having your only superstar player for the first 2 games cuz he’s a retard, not being able to bring your 2^nd best CB because your best CB said some racist shit to the other one’s brother and banged his former teammates wife, and losing multiple other players to injury get you?  Ding Ding Ding that’s right a first round exit and getting shit on by everyone in your home country. (yes that’s my horrible attempt at doing a reverse jinx cuz as much as I love to hate them, I still root for England in any tournament not involving USA or Iran)
   
   
   10.  Hardest Tourney to Predict Ever- With the group of death being so strong, the favorites having issues at certain positions, the usual powerhouses dealing w/ their own internal issues (England, France, Italy), the dangerous dark horses either in the hardest group ever (Denmark) or have hobbling stars (Czech-Rosicky, Russia- Arshavin, Croatia- Modric), and the home countries being so weak, this is the hardest tourney to predict since I have been alive. So on that note on to the predictions….
   
   
   Over the last year I have felt that Germany has clearly become the most complete team in the world and after Puyol’s injury, I pegged Germany to win Euro 2012. However, since Germany is now the sexy pick to win it all and this has been the year of the underdog, I have reversed course.
   
   
   The team that is shown first is the group winner and upsets are in bold.
   
   
   Group A- Poland, Russia
   Group B- Germany, Portugal
   Group C- Spain, Croatia
   Group D- France, Sweden
   
   
   Finals- France over Spain 1-0.
   
   
   Golden Boot- Benzema